Where young people and voters of color stand ahead of the midterms
Supercreator reviewed exclusive new data from GenForward Survey on how key Democratic coalitions feel about the economy, abortion, the Jan. 6 insurrection and other critical campaign issues.
ICYMI: US KILLS TOP 9/11 MASTERMIND » Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of the terrorist group Al-Qaeda since 2011, was killed in a counterterrorism operation on Saturday night at the direction of President Joe Biden.
al-Zawahiri was Osama bin Laden’s second-in-command during the 9/11 attack in 2001 and took over for him when bin Laden was killed in 2011 during the Obama administration when Biden was vice president.
“Now justice has been delivered and this terrorist leader is no more,” Biden, who authorized the drone strike that killed al-Zawahiri last Monday, according to a senior administration official, said in a speech on the balcony of the White House Blue Room. “People around the world no longer need to fear the vicious and determined killer. The United States continues to demonstrate our resolve and our capacity to defend the American people against those who seek to do us harm.”
» All eyes on the Taliban: al-Zawahiri was in Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan, when he was located by the US intelligence community, which raises questions on if the Taliban were providing a safe haven for the terrorist. This would be in violation of the agreement the Taliban entered with the US in 2020 and could impact how the White House engages with the government going forward.
» The reaction: Vice President Kamala Harris … House Speaker Nancy Pelosi … Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer … House Democratic Leader Steny Hoyer … Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan … Former Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes
BREAKING: BIDEN TAPS FEMA OFFICIAL TO LEAD MONKEYPOX RESPONSE » The White House this morning announced President Biden has named Robert Fenton as the National Monkeypox Response Coordinator to lead the administration’s strategy and operations to combat the current outbreak.
Fenton, who currently serves as Regional Administrator for FEMA Region 9 in the American West, will be responsible for increasing the availability of tests, vaccinations and treatments. He will be joined in this work by Demetre Daskalakis, a leading public health expert and the director of the HIV prevention division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who will serve as Deputy Coordinator. Read the full announcement
» Related: Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California declared monkeypox a public health emergency in the Golden State. Read Gov. Newsom’s statement
FIRST IN SUPERCREATOR: THE PRE-MIDTERMS VOTER OUTLOOK » We’re less than 100 days from the midterm elections and the balance of power in Congress and across state and city governments will be determined by if young voters and voters of color turn out. Supercreator got a sneak peek at the latest GenForward Survey to see where these communities stand on the top issues. The key takeaways:
Economic growth, gun control and women’s rights are the most critical issues to respondents.
79 percent of respondents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Nearly 70 percent of women respondents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, seven points higher than men.
Almost half of all Latinx respondents are incredibly apprehensive about unexpected expenses; on the flip, nearly 65 percent of AAPI respondents are a little or not worried about an unforeseen cost.
Nearly 43 percent of respondents are not worried about keeping or finding a good job, compared to nine percent who are extremely worried.
51 percent of Latinx respondents agree that inflation is having an impact on their lives. That number increases by seven points among white respondents.
Among age groups, 58 percent of 51+ respondents said they believe inflation affects their life, 10 points higher than 18-27-year-olds.
Sixty-five percent of Republicans say inflation is impacting their life, compared to 45 percent among Democrats.
Overall, economic growth and high taxes are the top two issues facing one community, with gun violence coming in third; however, Black respondents believe gun violence is the most critical issue, followed by racism and crime — a key constituency group for Democrats.
» Voter participation:
Nearly 80 percent of all respondents said they probably or definitely expect to vote in the 2022 midterms.
Roughly 30 percent of Latinx and AAPI voters said they definitely or probably won’t vote in the midterms, compared to 17 percent among white respondents.
1 out of 5 respondents believes the most crucial midterm election issue is inflation, registering 12 points higher than gun violence and economic growth.
Nearly 60 percent of AAPI and Black respondents said everyone should have access to abortion services, compared to 48 percent of white and 43 percent of Latinx people.
Roughly 4 in 10 Latinx respondents believe the Supreme Court opinion in Dobbs was correct, three points higher than white respondents. Nearly 60 percent of men think the court ruling was correct, compared to 78 percent of women. Twenty-two percent of young people between 18-26 agree with the verdict. In contrast, 35 percent of those over 41 agree.
Nearly 65 percent of respondents believe nothing should happen to a woman who carries out an abortion illegally. However, that number drops among Republicans to 43 percent. Overall, the majority of respondents believe doctors should not be penalized if they perform an illegal abortion.
Nearly 57 percent of respondents believe abortions can be self-managed at home without government interference. Interestingly, 57 percent of Latinx respondents think the government should interfere.
Respondents appear split on whether the federal government or companies should provide financial assistance for an abortion. Among age groups, however, nearly 60 percent of respondents between the age of 18-26 believe government and companies should assist, about 20 points higher than respondents over 41.
Nearly 60 percent of respondents somewhat or strongly disagree the Supreme Court should use the overturning of Roe to reconsider other privacy issues.
» The Jan. 6 insurrection:
37 percent of respondents believe the attack on the US Capitol was not part of a conspiracy to overturn the presidential election. Thirty-nine percent believe former President Donald Trump was at the center of the insurrection wanting to overturn the presidential election.
47 percent of respondents paid much attention to the January 6 hearings.
56 percent of respondents believe Trump is guilty of the crime of overturning the presidential election. Nineteen percent of Republicans and 90 percent of Democrats believe he is guilty.
Paradoxically, 92 percent of respondents believe Trump should be prosecuted for trying to overturn the presidential election.
Nearly half of the respondents believe the January 6th commission effectively presented a case against Trump. 60 percent of Black and 63 percent of AAPI believe the commission presented a compelling case. In contrast, 54 percent of Latinx and 43 percent of white respondents believe the commission hearing did.
65 percent of respondents believe Trump should not run for office.
The GenForward Survey is a nationally representative survey of over 3,000 young adults ages 18-36 conducted bimonthly that pays special attention to how race and ethnicity shape how respondents experience and think about the world.
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TODAY IN POLITICS »
President Biden this morning will virtually receive his daily intelligence briefing. This afternoon, he will virtually join an event in Michigan on the implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act, the innovation and competitiveness legislation Congress passed last week.
Vice President Harris will be in Washington, DC and has no public events on her schedule.
The Senate is in and this afternoon will vote to confirm Elizabeth Wilson Hanes to be US District Judge for the Eastern District of Virginia.
The House is out.
SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE: SENATE DEMS’ MISSED OPPORTUNITY » Senate Democrats this week are considering the Inflation Reduction Act.
The bill would make historic investments in climate justice, extend a series of Affordable Care Act tax credits beyond President Biden’s first term in office, empower Medicare to negotiate prices on a handful of expensive prescription drugs for seniors and close loopholes so wealthy individuals and corporations pay their fair share in taxes.
But it excludes a series of popular economic investments that advocates say would improve the well-being of children and families, representing a missed opportunity for the Senate to expand the social safety net and level the playing field for creative expression. Become a paid subscriber to read my deep dive on the issue
VP SHOPS WITH A CAUSE » Vice President Harris made an unscheduled trip in the Miami neighborhood of Little Havana at Dragonfly Thrift Boutique, a consignment store that employs and supports women who were recently released from incarceration.
» What Harris told the women: “I believe in you so guys so much.” She also talked about the concept of redemption and how society should support people who make mistakes.
» An emotional scene: Some of the women the vice president met were openly crying while explaining how meaningful the LEAP program at Dragonfly has been for them.
“I’ve accomplished way more than I ever would have expected,” Danielle Estes, a LEAP graduate and administrative assistant for the boutique.
» The backdrop: Harris was in Miami to announce a $1 billion investment to make communities more resilient to the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events.
“In awarding these grants, we have paid special attention to the issue of equity,” she said. “The climate crisis has exposed and intensified generations of economic and environmental inequities that have been present in communities across our nation. And our administration remains committed to addressing those inequities through environmental justice.”
She left the boutique shortly after 5:15 p.m., with a large shopping bag in tow, to head back to Washington, DC.
» Related: “The Kamala Conundrum” (Gabriel Debenedetti / New York magazine)